How the lab calculates
Simple data, simple rules, honest numbers
Everything in the lab is calculated the same way every time. Here is how — first in plain words, then precisely.
Sample data
The lab uses four made-up markets, each 252 “days” long, generated from formulas with a fixed starting number (seed). That is why the same lesson always shows the same numbers. They are designed to look like typical kinds of markets — they are not real prices.
| Sample market | In plain words | Seed |
|---|---|---|
| Steady trend | Gradual upward drift with low volatility. | 1105 |
| Range-bound | No drift; prices are pulled back toward a centre. | 2202 |
| Volatility shock | A calm stretch, then a gap down and a burst of volatility that fades. | 3355 |
| Drawdown & recovery | A long decline, a flat base, then a recovery. | 4432 |
The rules
In plain words: Each lesson uses one simple rule: follow a trend, buy dips, or buy breakouts.
Moving-average crossover is long while the short average is above the long one. Mean reversion buys when price is a set number of standard deviations below its average and sells as it returns. Breakout buys above the recent high.
average_t = (price_t + … + price_{t−N+1}) / N z_t = (price_t − average_t) / stdev_t
How trades are simulated
In plain words: Decisions are made at the end of a day and carried out at the next day's opening price, with costs.
Each simulated trade pays a fee and slippage, both in basis points. There is one position at a time, no borrowing and no short selling.
buy price = next open × (1 + slippage) sell price = next open × (1 − slippage)
How predictions are checked
In plain words: The lab compares two setups and checks your prediction against the actual numbers.
Each lesson runs a “before” and an “after” setup. Thresholds decide what counts as “about the same”: 1 percentage point for returns, 2 points for drawdowns, exactly equal for trade counts.
Where explanations come from
In plain words: Explanations are written in advance and chosen by fixed rules — not by an AI model.
Statements such as “too few trades to judge” appear when the numbers cross published thresholds (for example, fewer than 10 trades).
What the lab leaves out
In plain words: Real markets have surprises the lab does not include.
No gaps between orders and fills beyond the next open, no partial fills, no changing costs, no news, no emotions. These are exactly the things that make real trading harder.